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The following is kind of a made-up story, but required reading for anyone with a 2028 fixation.
I don’t mean that it’s fictional. This Axios piece is based on real reporting.
But it’s just another angle out of a thousand possible angles about who might win the next Democratic nomination.
I’m an Axios fan. I’ve written many such stories myself. It’s what you do when there’s no hard news about an event that won’t start for another year and a half. You’ve got to keep feeding the beast.
AOC, ASKED ABOUT RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT, SAYS HER AMBITION IS ‘WAY BIGGER THAN THAT’
(In fairness, Axios’ first three stories yesterday were about the war, Donald Trump’s suit against the IRS and congressional maneuvering.)
So this is one of those in-between stories, for days when there are no hard-news developments.
We used to call this the “invisible primary.” But that term has to be retired. In the era of X and Instagram, of group chats, of powerhouse podcasts, nothing is invisible anymore. Anyone can go on Substack and try to draw a following, with varying levels of insight and accuracy. Few “scoops” last more than two minutes in this echo chamber.
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And you probably know the history involving name ID. At the end of 2007, Rudy Giuliani was the GOP front-runner. Hillary Clinton, who everyone expected to win, was leading Barack Obama 45 to 27%.
At the end of 2003, Howard Dean led the field with 23%t, more than double his closest rivals. John Kerry was in sixth place, with 4%. That Kerry guy easily won the nomination.
Now Axios puts the spotlight on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ro Khanna:
“Veterans of Bernie Sanders’ two presidential campaigns are splitting their allegiances between a pair of Democrats vying to inherit his progressive movement…”
The California congressman “has taken a slightly more centrist view than Ocasio-Cortez on issues such as crime and immigration. He’s hired key members of Sanders’ 2016 campaign–the best known is 2016 campaign manager Jeff Weaver–which had a relatively moderate brand on immigration and guns — and didn’t fear going negative on Hillary Clinton.”
AOC “has tapped strategists behind Sanders’ effort in 2020, when the Vermont senator moved left on social issues to back policies such as decriminalizing border crossings by unauthorized immigrants, and largely avoided bashing Joe Biden.”
So this is mainly about recruiting little-known operatives. “Old Bernie” vs. “New Bernie.”
The news peg, if there is one, was the New York congresswoman’s shot at MTG: “I personally do not trust someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene, a proven bigot and antisemite, on the issue of what is good for Gazans and Israelis.”
Based on an AtlasIntel survey, Ocasio-Cortez leads the Democratic field with 26%, and Khanna came in tenth at 0.9%. So this narrative might help him.
Personally, I don’t think AOC is going to run. She recently said she’s more interested in pushing such agenda items as health care than in holding office. I’m not saying she can’t run, or that she can’t win the nomination, though she’d get clobbered in a general election. But she’s not openly lusting for it the way Kamala Harris is.
Of course, any Democrat with a pulse has got to be tempted by Donald Trump’s sinking poll numbers.
In the latest New York Times/Siena College survey, the president’s approval rating has sunk to a second-term low of 37%. (Keep in mind that each such declaration only applies to that media outlet’s own previous poll, leading to overlapping ALL-TIME-LOW headlines.)
Nearly two-thirds say going to war with Iran was a mistake, and 64% disapprove of his handling of the economy.
Trump won’t be on the 2028 ballot, of course, but Trumpism certainly will.
Meanwhile, the approval of Trump nominee Kevin Warsh as Fed chair doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll get his longstanding wish of reduced interest rates. In fact, quite the opposite.
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On Maria Bartiromo’s Fox show, an analyst, Ryan Payne of Payne Capital Management, said there is increasing pressure on the Fed to actually raise interest rates.
“The bond vigilantes have spoken, and what they’re telling you is the Fed probably has to raise rates here just to keep inflation in check because, clearly, right now we’re pricing in a much different market than we were just two weeks ago.”
Bartiromo agreed: “Yeah, it’s true and, of course, the president continues to say that this is a temporary situation.”
Read the full article here