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We’ve reached one of the best days of the week. Work winds down, we get to go home, crack open a cold one and reach for the remote. Tonight, my TV will be locked on three different NBA games that will all be closeout games.
There are two Eastern Conference matchups and one Western Conference battle. It starts with the Pistons looking to force Game 7 in Detroit.
The Pistons won the most games in the Eastern Conference this season. While that is a fact, they haven’t really looked like a dominating team in the first round of the playoffs. That isn’t to say that Detroit has been terrible, but they do look like some of the flaws that didn’t hurt them playing a team once and moving on, have been exposed in a seven-game set.
They are down, but they aren’t out yet, and if they win tonight, they get to bring the series back to Detroit for a decisive Game 7.
I do feel like we need to take a moment to appreciate just how good Cade Cunningham has been in this series. He was drafted first overall in the 2021 draft, so it isn’t like anyone should be shocked that he is good at basketball.
His first year in the league was decent, probably about in line with a No. 1 pick. His second year was derailed by injury. In year three, there were still injuries, and the team was a disaster. Last year, he took a big leap and scored 26.1 points per game. His Pistons team was fearless against the Knicks. This year, he led them to 60 wins and has averaged 32.6 points per game in the playoffs.
This is not the first time that an eighth seed has a chance to upset the first seed. The Magic are on the verge of adding their name to the list of teams to accomplish the feat. They only need to win one of the next two games in order to do it.
Technically, they will have had three chances to close out the series. The big issue with the Magic is that the team relies on everyone being available. It sounds obvious that if you lose one of your best players, like Franz Wagner, you’re going to struggle. But, the Magic are built around Wagern’s isolation, physicality and overall ability of Paolo Banchero, shooting from Desmond Bane and defense from Wendell Carter Jr. and Jalen Suggs.
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If you remove one of those players, the team certainly suffers. All teams would if you removed their second-best player, but Wagner being absent hurts quite a bit.
I expect him to be out in this game, and if he does go, I would be skeptical to see him play as much or with his normal level of production. He had 19 points in 24 minutes before he was done for the game in Game 4. The good news for Orlando is that this one is at home, so the role players may step up a bit.
In Game 5, the Pistons took advantage of Wagner’s absence. Banchero was great, putting up 45 points, but Cunningham matched that output and was more efficient. Jamal Cain, who looked amazing in Game 5, started for the Magic, but he played just 25 minutes. Anthony Black got almost 40 minutes and was decent in his role.
The Pistons still only beat the Magic by seven points in that game. Orlando outscored the Pistons in two of the four quarters, and outside a bad first quarter, the Magic looked like the better team.
I’m a bit surprised the Pistons are favored. The Magic have looked good at home and haven’t lost yet. Both teams are filled with role players and a superstar. The problem is, role players aren’t good on the road. Give me the Magic to cover, and I will sprinkle the moneyline as I think they win on their home floor.
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