Despite getting to a Game 7, the 2026 Western Conference Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder haven’t lived up to the Game 1 double-overtime instant classic.
While the winning team has alternated over the past four games, the margin has been at least 13 points. Plus, Oklahoma City’s flopping has been the biggest storyline of the conference finals, which is a bummer for us die-hard NBA fans.
However, that will be mostly forgotten if the Spurs-Thunder series finale is another thriller. DraftKings is projecting a close one: Oklahoma City is -162 on the moneyline and -3.5 favorites, and the total is 212.5 as of Friday afternoon.
SPURS BLOW OUT THUNDER, FORCE GAME 7 AS VICTOR WEMBANYAMA LEADS THE WAY WITH 28-POINT DOUBLE-DOUBLE
That said, Game 7 can be fun regardless of the drama, as long as we (I) win money. With that in mind, here is my betting card for the Spurs-Thunder series finale Saturday.
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 bet slip
- San Antonio Spurs +3.5 (-108) at DraftKings, risking 1.08 units (u).
- OVER 212.5 (-110) at DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
- Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 19.5 points, rebounds, assists (-104) at DraftKings, risking 0.52u.
- Spurs PG De’Aaron Fox OVER 5.5 assists (-115) at FanDuel, risking 0.58u.
San Antonio Spurs +3.5
Basically, I’m doubling down on my pre-series prediction of San Antonio to make the 2026 NBA Finals for these four reasons:
- The Spurs are winning three of the “four factors” in the conference finals and have a higher net efficiency.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander just isn’t playing well enough.
- Thunder big Chet Holmgren is shook.
- Oklahoma City needs a friendly whistle to beat San Antonio.
First, turnover differential is the only factor the Thunder are winning in this series. That’s mostly due to Spurs PG De’Aaron Fox missing the first two games of the conference finals and Stephon Castle turning the ball over 20 times in Games 1 and 2.
Since Fox returned in Game 3, San Antonio has more assists and fewer turnovers. Besides SGA getting to the foul line, the best part of OKC’s offense is scoring off turnovers. If they protect the ball, the Spurs will out-execute the Thunder in the half-court.
This leads to my second point: Gilgeous-Alexander can’t get a quality look in this matchup. He is scoring just 24.3 points per game (PPG) in this series, down from his 31.1 PPG regular-season average, on 37.9% shooting.
You cannot win the conference finals if your best player struggles this much. San Antonio is so long and athletic, and Victor Wembanyama is the best defensive basketball player ever. They are taking away Shai’s mid-range game and contesting all of his jumpers.
Third, Holmgren has been a dud, and he looks scared out there. Chet has played the second-most minutes for the Thunder this series and has attempted the fourth-most field goals. They need Holmgren to step up with wing Jaylen Williams playing hurt, and he is playing soft.
Fourth, and I hate talking about this, but the Thunder’s brand of basketball sucks because they play for fouls instead of points. Even though OKC flops and foul-baits nonstop, San Antonio has a higher free-throw margin because it’s the bigger and more physical team.
Oklahoma City is cooked if the refs don’t fall for Gilgeous-Alexander throwing himself to the ground, Holmgren acting as if he got hit by a car, or forward Lu Dort exaggerating contact on every screen.
OUTKICK IS NOW ON THE FOX APP: CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD
Perhaps the Spurs are a year or two too early, and Oklahoma City’s bench steps up at home as it has for most of the NBA playoffs. However, San Antonio is the better basketball team with the best player in this series.
OVER 212.5
Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists
Hartenstein has gone Over this number on his stat combo in three games this series. But he was essentially benched in Game 1 after just 12:10 minutes, and he only played 16:05 minutes in Game 6 because Oklahoma City got crushed.
Originally thought to be unplayable in this matchup, Hartenstein is getting more run because he is physical, and OKC needs someone to battle with Wembanyama in the paint. Hartenstein also has a floater he has been making over Wemby in this series.
Furthermore, Hartenstein had at least 20 points, rebounds and assists in three regular-season games vs. San Antonio. He leads the Thunder in rebounding rate in the conference finals and ranks second in assist rate.
Spurs PG De’Aaron Fox OVER 5.5 Assists
You can’t coach your bets, but I sure hope Fox sets up his teammates rather than looking for his own offense. Fox shooting should be a last resort if none of San Antonio’s other offensive actions work.
NBA’S NEW LOTTERY SYSTEM STRIPS WORST TEAMS OF TOP DRAFT ODDS, BUT MAY REWARD CALCULATED MEDIOCRITY
The Spurs have lob threats (Wembanyama and Castle) and 3-point shooters (forward Julian Champagnie and SG Devin Vassell) in their starting lineup. Fox has dished out 6+ assists in nine of his 16 games in these playoffs, including three out of four in this series.
_____________________________
Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.
Read the full article here