Major League Baseball’s league office and ownership has made a concerted effort this season to make spending money the enemy.
A concerted marketing campaign promoted during broadcasts on the league’s streaming services has made it clear that payroll disparities are now unacceptable. “Level the Playing Field,” the advertising says. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the enemy, they explain with a bar chart showing their payroll and luxury tax bill. Ignoring that the luxury taxes are paid back to the league and redistributed to small market teams.
This campaign is designed to increase fan support for a lockout and eventual salary cap. And it’s working. Baseball social media is littered with fans complaining, taking the owners’ side, ignoring results and demanding that teams be allowed to pocket more profits.
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The insinuation with this coordinated effort is that small market teams or lower payroll organizations, more specifically, have little chance of competing against the big market, big spending franchises. As examples, they use the New York Yankees, those evil Dodgers, then fall curiously silent when looking at the other teams in those same markets.
The New York Mets, per Sportrac, actually have the highest payroll obligations this season, in terms of dollars paid in 2026. Those Mets are 53-68, in last place in the NL East by 19.5 games, and buried 11 games back of the third wild card spot. The Los Angeles Angels play just 30 miles from Dodger Stadium, in the country’s second-largest media market. They haven’t reached the playoffs since 2012, and at 46-74, have literally the worst record in baseball with just over 40 games remaining in the season.
What about San Francisco? One of the country’s largest media markets, a historic franchise with the Giants, and around $200 million in payroll obligations. They’re 50-70, a mere 22 games out of first place in the NL West. Philadelphia, reliably one of baseball’s highest big market spenders, lost Wednesday afternoon to fall out of playoff position, if the season ended today.
The Yankees are in second place. Toronto, with a top-five payroll, is effectively eliminated at 58-63. Houston, with a top-10 payroll, is 61-60, while their big market rival Texas Rangers are 60-60.
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“Too many fans in markets across the game have too little hope that their team has a fair chance to win,” MLB says in an attempt to advance their preferred narrative.
With big market teams struggling, then, who’s succeeding? Well, with again just over 40 games remaining, the two best records in baseball belong to the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays.
Milwaukee entered Wednesday at 74-46, in position to enjoy a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the postseason. In the American League, the Rays’ dominant win over the Athletics improved their record to 74-46 and extended their streak to nine wins in a row.
The Brewers are 19th in payroll, per Sportrac, while the Rays are 23rd. Another first place team, the Chicago White Sox, are 25th. The Cleveland Guardians, dead last in payroll, are just two games out of a wild card spot, even after a 2-8 streak.
So what happens to the “fans have no hope” narrative now? Will MLB and the owners face an uphill battle in the war of public opinion on a salary cap thanks to the success of the Brewers and Rays, yet again?
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The answer of course, is likely no. Fans don’t follow regular season outcomes, ignoring that the best records and performances over a 162-game sample are far more meaningful than other samples. Public support for a salary cap will be determined based on what happens in the playoffs and World Series. Incorrectly.
Postseason series wins are based on fortunate timing and randomness, with some small amount coming from talent advantages. Unlike the NFL, the best team doesn’t always win in MLB. In fact, it’s more likely that they don’t. Just like the Dodgers’ failure in 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023, winning 100 games and building the best possible roster can’t guarantee any level of playoff success.
The Rays and Brewers have built some of the best rosters in baseball, and have been rewarded for it with regular season success over the broadest sample. But come October, those samples are compressed to a best-of-five or best-of-seven, with little advantage to having the best record.
Fans will judge the necessity of a cap on whether the Dodgers win again. But what if the Brewers or Rays win a title? Tampa Bay reached the World Series in 2020, after all, much more recently than the Mets, Red Sox, or Giants, as just a few examples. Would that change perception? Or would the excuses and propaganda continue?
Is reaching the World Series enough to give fans “hope” that their team can win? Based on Milwaukee and Tampa’s success this year, we might find out.
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