National Guard’s DC deployment has had no ‘measurable effect’ on violent crime: Report

The presence of more than 2,000 National Guard troops in Washington, D.C., since Aug. 2025 has had “no measurable effect on violent crime,” according to a new report by the Niskanen Center.

The researchers described the deployment as “an expensive tool” used in “the wrong places for the wrong types of crime.” They cited the $607 average daily cost per Guard member in the nation’s capital, compared with $384 in pay for Metropolitan Police Department officers.

“The National Guard was deployed primarily in high-visibility public spaces, exactly the locations where opportunistic property crime tends to occur and where visible deterrence is most likely to be effective,” they wrote. “A uniformed presence in tourist corridors and transit hubs is unlikely to interrupt a dispute between individuals with preexisting ties on their own turf. The Guard’s footprint was simply misaligned with the geography of violence.”

Robbery and other violent crimes in Washington, D.C., have also seen a downward trend that predates the deployment, the report said, and the operation did not impact that trajectory.

But the policy think tank emphasized that the effort was “not a waste.” It acknowledged there was a 24% decline in opportunistic property crime recorded in the first six months of the operation.

“What the Guard brought was a massive, sudden shock from the visible presence of uniformed military personnel on the streets of Washington almost overnight,” they continued. “It produced a significant reduction in property crime, and it did so quickly, which matters when residents and businesses are demanding visible action.”

The authors went on to argue that a more targeted, data-driven MPD mobilization could have achieved “comparable or better outcomes” at a fraction of the expense for taxpayers.

The White House, in response, dismissed what it called an “out-of-touch” think tank analysis, written by “keyboard warriors” seeking to undermine President Donald Trump’s agenda.

“Here’s the reality: President Trump has transformed D.C. from a crime-ridden city into a safe and beautiful haven for residents and visitors alike,” White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Military Times. “The president’s Safe and Beautiful Task Force and National Guard presence have driven down crime, beautified the city and improved quality of life for countless individuals,”

Trump, for his part, said last week there were no plans for the National Guard to leave the nation’s capital anytime soon. The administration is requesting an additional 1,500 Guard troops ahead of America’s 250th birthday events in the district.