Happy Memorial Day to everyone. I hope your beers are cold, your grills are working and most of all that you have a happy and safe day. Take a moment to remember why we have this day, as well. Many brave men and women gave their lives for us to enjoy days like this, and we should be thinking about them a bit today as well.
The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the best teams in baseball. I suppose that shouldn’t come as much of a shock because the team has been one of the better franchises in the sport for many years. They somehow find a way to win no matter what team they have on the field. More than almost any franchise, they make diamonds out of starting pitchers, and their team plays good, fundamental ball. This year, they are almost 20 games over .500 and lead the American League East. They have, however, not been great on the road.
With a 15-11 road record, it isn’t like they are terrible, but they definitely have room for improvement. Today’s starter, Shane McClanahan, is one of the better pitchers in baseball, but injuries have kept him down for a couple of years. This season, he is throwing very well to a 5-2 record with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. His numbers are worse on the road, but they really aren’t that much different than his home starts. He faced the Orioles last week and allowed four earned runs on six hits over five innings.
The Baltimore Orioles were supposed to be improved this year. They made a lot of additions in the offseason and looked to try to get back into the playoffs. The team is 23-29 for the year, and in fourth place of the AL East. The team was 18-34 last year on Memorial Day, so there is at least progress. But, they are already 12 games back of the Rays, which means they will need quite a bit of help if they want to make a run for the postseason.
Looking to try to give him a bit of that help is today’s starter Kyle Bradish. I read on X from a sportsbook operator that their biggest liability (before the season started) was for Bradish to win the Cy Young. I don’t think the books have to worry about that. Bradish is 2-6 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. He has good stuff, but injuries hurt him too. He’s made 10 starts this year, which is more than he made in either of the past two seasons. In fairness, most of his outings haven’t been bad, but the Orioles aren’t giving him much support. He faced the Rays in his last game and allowed two earned runs on four hits over 5.1 innings.
This should be a pretty good matchup. Looking across the board, I’d say this is likely the best pitching matchup of the day. That doesn’t mean it will definitely be a pitcher’s duel, but on paper the signs point to that. I’ll probably stay off of the total, though.
I am going to back the Rays. Tampa Bay swept Baltimore, so I’m sure the Orioles are looking for some revenge. Unfortunately, I don’t think they will do that against McClanahan. The Tampa pitcher didn’t have a great game last time, but he rarely has two bad performances in a row. Bradish has been decent this year, but he is also allowing a lot of traffic on the basepaths which are converting into crooked numbers. Give me the Rays to win.
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